More On 3-Year Inflation Being Lowest in 54 Years

Percent change in price from July 2008 to July 2011:





















Item	3-Year % Change
Natural Gas	-31.60
Fuel Oil	-20.65
Eggs	-18.10
Oranges	-16.50
Tomatoes	-15.82
Gasoline	-10.60
Milk	-7.75
Apples	-5.37
Margarine	-2.70
Bananas	-2.55
Flour	-2.02
Electricity	2.93
Orange Juice	9.23
Bread	9.32
Chicken	9.66
Ground Chuck	17.50
Average	-5.31


As a follow-up to this CD post featuring three-year inflation rates, the chart above shows the three-year percentage change in prices from July 2008-July 2011 for the items in the "Top Picks" from the BLS website.  Of the 16 items in the list, 11 have decreased in price over the last three years, five items have increased, and the average three-year change was -5.31%.  


Over the most recent three-year period through July, overall prices have increased by only 2.87% for the CPI: All Items index, or 0.95% per year on an average annual compounded basis, and that's the lowest three-year inflation rate since January 1957. 

Maybe this helps explain the mixed opinions about consumer prices and inflation: Over a three-year period, there has been almost no overall inflation at all, and there has actually been deflation for many consumer items since the summer of 2008.  Over a shorter period like one or two years, consumer prices have been rising faster than previously, so it does seem like inflation is increasing, even though over a longer period like three years inflation is almost non-existent.   

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