LA TIMES -- Confidence among U.S. consumers rose this month for a fourth straight time, reflecting signs that the worst of the recession has passed. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment gained to 70.8, the highest level since February 2008, from 68.7 in May. Recent reports show some areas of the economy, such as housing and manufacturing, are seeing a smaller pace of decline, consistent with the Federal Reserve's projection this week that the slump is "slowing." Government data today indicated that efforts to revive the economy are allowing consumers to spend even with unemployment at a 25-year high. The data also showed savings surged to the highest level since 1993.
MP: The last time the Michigan consumer sentiment index increased in four consecutive months was the period from October 2001 to January 2002, which signalled the end of the 2001 recession (see shaded area in chart above). The four-month cumulative increase of 14.5 points in consumer sentiment from March to June 2009 (see shaded area in chart) is even greater than the 11.2 point increase in late 2001-early 2002.
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