Restaurant Current Situation Index Reaches 100.3 in April, The Highest Level in April Since July 2007

    National.Restaurant Association -- "Buoyed by positive same-store sales and solid optimism among restaurant operators for continued growth, the outlook for the restaurant industry remained positive in April. The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 100.9 in April, essentially unchanged from a level of 101.0 in March. In addition, April represented the 5th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

    The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 100.3 in April – up slightly from a March level of 100.2. In addition, the Current Situation Index stood above 100 for the 2nd consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the current situation indicators (see chart above).

    The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions), stood at 101.5 in April – down from a level of 101.7 in March. The Expectations Index stood above the 100 level for the 9th consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the forward-looking indicators (see chart above)."


    MP: At 100.3, the Current Situation Index in April was at the highest level since July 2007, almost four years ago.  It's also the first time since the summer of 2007 that the Current Situation Index has remained above the benchmark 100 level, which signals expansion of restaurant activity. 

Post Title

Restaurant Current Situation Index Reaches 100.3 in April, The Highest Level in April Since July 2007


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Drill, Drill, Drill = Jobs, Jobs, Jobs in Pennsylvania

    Marcellus Shale Coalition – "The Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry – like a host of news outlets across the region and the nation – continues to keep a watchful eye on the powerful job creation engine called the Marcellus Shale, the world’s second largest natural gas field behind one in Iran.

    In its recent “Marcellus Shale: Fast Facts” employment overview, the Center for Workforce Information & Analysis – a research arm of the Dept. of Labor & Industry – demonstrates clearly, with new data, the Marcellus Shale’s sustained, growing and unmatched economic strength. In fact, according to this independent, government data, “The number of new hires across the Marcellus producing regions is nearly double in 2011Q1 than what it was in 2010Q1; indicating that while new employees continue to be hired, the rate is accelerating.”

    Under the headline “Marcellus Shale drilling creates 48000 jobs, report says,” the Patriot-News reports this:

    "Nearly 48,000 people have been hired in the last year by industries related to drilling in the Marcellus Shale, and 71 percent of those people were Pennsylvania residents. Nine thousand of them were hired in the first three months of 2011. The average salary was higher than the statewide average. And the rate of hiring is accelerating." 


    MP:  The chart above shows that while the overall employment level in the state is still more than 100,000 jobs below the pre-recession level, mining employment barely slowed at all during the recession. In the last eight years, mining jobs in Pennsylvania have almost doubled, and have increased by more than 36% in just the last two years.

Post Title

Drill, Drill, Drill = Jobs, Jobs, Jobs in Pennsylvania


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If You Tax Large Firms You Get Fewer of Them, If You Subsidize Small Firms, You Get More of Them

    FINANCIAL POST --"Small business tax incentives are keeping businesses in Canada small, hindering business efficiency and disproportionately benefiting the wealthy, according to a new study from the University of Calgary. The study, authored by Jack Mintz and Duanjie Chen of The School of Public Policy, said that Canada’s small business tax rate creates a “wall of taxation” in the country that keeps businesses small so they can remain in favorable tax brackets.

    Instead of job growth, the authors said that the small business tax rate has led to an abundance of small businesses in Canada that have no intention to grow. Furthermore, the authors said that wealthy Canadians have used the favorable tax rate as a tax shelter, incorporating small businesses to avoid high personal income taxes."

    From the paper's summary:

    "We show that small business growth is hampered by the existing tax system. As a business grows, effective tax rates on capital investments made by entrepreneurs virtually double when the business grows from as a little as $1 million to over $30 million in asset size (see chart above)."

Post Title

If You Tax Large Firms You Get Fewer of Them, If You Subsidize Small Firms, You Get More of Them


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Bribery And The But-For World

    Settlement amounts in FCPA enforcement actions have grown over the past decade. This much you already knew.

    A significant contributing factor is the increased use of disgorgement in FCPA enforcement actions. For instance, as highlighted in this prior post, 96% of SEC FCPA enforcement settlement amounts in 2010 consisted of disgorgement and prejudgment interest.

    The theory seems to be this, if Company A made an improper payment in violation of the FCPA to obtain Contract A, all of the Company A's net profits associated with Contract A are subject to disgorgement.

    In my opening remarks at the World Bribery and Corruption Compliance Forum in London in September 2010 (see here) I observed as follows.

    "Another issue in need of deeper analysis is the commonly held enforcement view that the contract (and thus net profits of the contract) at issue was secured solely because of the alleged improper payments made by the corporate. This ignores the fact that most of the companies settling enforcement actions are otherwise viewed as industry leaders presumably because they offer the best product or service for the best price. With such companies, can it truly be said that the alleged improper payments were the sole reason the company secured the contract at issue, thus justifying the company being forced to disgorge all of its net profits associated with the contract? Does a but for analysis have a place in bribery laws – in other words should the enforcement agency have to prove that but for the improper payment, the company would not have secured the contract at issue?"

    In a recent piece titled "Economic Analysis of Damages under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act," (here) Dr. Patrick Conroy (here) and Dr. Graeme Hunter (here) - both of Nera Economic Consulting - spend some time in the "but-for" world.

    The authors note that "to date there has been little consideration of the true benefit of the bribe" but "with fines in the hundreds of millions of dollars and increasing enforcement, it is necessary to clearly understand what effect a bribe had on profits and to carefully establish what the but-for profits would have been without the bribe."

    The authors note that "while a bribe may have led to very high gains, the but-for profits could have been high (and the gain from the bribe low) if the bribe would have little effect on the probability of winning the work or if alternative projects were similarly profitable."

    The authors state as follows. "If a company pays a bribe to secure a project, what is the gain to the company from the bribe? While one answer might be the profits earned by the project, we outline [in the article] a number of considerations based on the incremental probability of winning generated by the bribe and the opportunity cost of the project won that will lead to a more realistic, and sometimes lower, calculation of the true economic profits from the bribe."

    The authors conclude as follows. "International bribery has become a regulatory enforcement priority based on the FCPA in the US and the soon-to-be-implemented Anti-Bribery Act in the UK. Applying greater precision to the financial benefits of bribery is necessary given increasing enforcement."

    A thought-provoking read and time well spent in the "but-for" world.

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Bribery And The But-For World


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Oil Updates: Cuba Discovery and Tax Cuts in Alaska

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Oil Updates: Cuba Discovery and Tax Cuts in Alaska


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Two More Questions

    1. If ticket scalping laws that make it illegal to sell a ticket to a concert or sporting event above face value are a good idea, shouldn't selling a coin, bond, car, or house above face value, sticker price or list price also be illegal as well?  If not, why not? 

    2. Name the main arguments in favor of selling a coin, bond, car or house above face value/list price.  Aren't all of them equally good arguments for allowing people to sell tickets above face value?

Post Title

Two More Questions


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Stock Market Overview for 5/29/11

    During regular trading hours, there were many stocks that continued to break up to the upside. These stocks are usually going up  with news.If you are looking to day trade today, you might want to check out the following stocks. I usually throw these on my watch list and monitor with resistance & support levels. Below are a list of stocks that I am watching for May 31,2011. Also check out my Top 2011 Stock Gainers, Stocks to Buy 2011.You can also check previous stocks to buy reports- Right Here

    Top Stocks Performance of the day:These are  stocks that continued to break up to the upside or down side. These stocks are usually going up or down with news or technical.If you are looking to day trade, you might want to check out the following stocks.

    Top Gainers: AATI, KV-A, FTWR, BCON, ARL, LPHI, URG    
    New High:  AATI, VHI, AVD 
    Overbought:  AMMB, NSM
    Unusual Volume:  AATI, CEBK, SSE, PMA
    Upgrade:  SNE
    Earnings Before: GHM
    Insider Buying: ADPT 
     
    For Market TA analysis
    Stock Market  Closing Price 5/27/11
     

    $INDU Dow Industrial Close -   12441.58 Up 38.82
    $COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Close  
    2796.86 Up 13.94
    $SPX S&P 500 Close -  1331.10 Up 5.41

    Commodities Closing Price 

    Gold Close -  1536

    Oil Close - 100.75

    Natural Gas Close -4.52

    Silver  37.96
     
    SP 500
    Long term signals : Bullish
    Short term signals : Neutral

    Stop  @ 1250
    QQQ (Nasdaq 100) : Bullish, stop @ 55
    INDU: Bullish, stop @11000
    COMPQ:Bullish, stop @ 2600
    Top trend : Techs  
    Value : Financial

    Euro Dollar : Bullish
    US Dollar index : Bearish  
    Gold : Bearish, stop @ 1330
    10 Y US Yield : Bullish, above 2.8 stop
    30 Y US Bond : Short, stop @ 132

    World Market
    UK's FTSE:  Bullish, stop @ 5700
    Germany's DAX: Bullish, stop @ 6340
    France's CAC: Bullish, stop @ 3800
    Shanghai : Bullish
    Japan Nikkei : Bullish

    U.S. markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day. For the remainder of the week, new developments in Europe and employment data in the U.S. will be in focus. In addition to the jobless claims report, the May employment report will be released on June 3.Support for the SPX remains at 1305 and then 1295, with resistance at 1340 and then 1350.So we should trade small lot.Take a look all 1/5/15/60m chart if we want to trade this market. 

    Earnings Preview for the week of May 30th-June 3rd : Companies reporting earnings the week of May 30th-June 3rd include:

    Monday: Markets are closed
    Tuesday: EJ, LGF, PVH, and GAME.
    Wednesday: DAKT, DG, VIP, CEDU, CWTR, CPRT, ESL, XIDE, SNDA, and VRA.
    Thursday: CHRS, CYBX, ENS, TFM, JOYG, MPR, MOV, UNFI, UTIW, COO, DMND, SAI, and PAY
    Friday: AMWD and BTH

    I also have  technical analysis different stocks-Right Here.
     
    Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
    $SPX - 60 min
    ALL QUICK LOOK INDEX DAILY CHARTS
    QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
    $USD
    $VIX
    $CPC daily
    $SPX, $USD & $VIX
    INDEX Bullish percent index (EOD)
    Simple Trading System  
    QQQQ Daily 
    COMPQ



    FOR 05/31 SPX resistance, pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1343.55, R2 13339.40, R1 1335.25
    Pivot Point 1330.47
    Support  S1 1326.32, S2 1321.54, S3 1317.39

    FOR Weekly 05/31-06/03  SPX resistance , pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1357.44, R2 1348.66, R1 1339.88
    Pivot Point 1325.84
    Support  S1 1317.06, S2 1303.02, S3 1294.24
     


















    For the latest updates on the stock market, visit,
    http://dailymarketanalysis-blog.blogspot.com/

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Stock Market Overview for 5/29/11


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Two Great Questions from Bryan Caplan

    Bryan Caplan asks:

    1. If the minimum wage is a good idea, shouldn't unpaid internships be illegal as well?  If not, why not? 

    2. Name the main arguments in favor of the legality of unpaid internships.  Aren't all of them equally good arguments for allowing people to work for wages greater than zero and less than the minimum wage?

Post Title

Two Great Questions from Bryan Caplan


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https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/05/two-great-questions-from-bryan-caplan.html


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Leading Economic Indexes

    The Conference Board reported increases this week for the Leading Economic Index in the Euro Area (0.4% in April), Mexico (0.8% in March) and Australia (0.4% in March).   

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Leading Economic Indexes


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IJ Wins A Victory for Food Trucks in El Paso



    The video above documents how the Institute for Justice filed a federal lawsuit and successfully overturned an El Paso, Texas city ordinance that prevented food trucks from operating within 1,000 feet of an established restaurant or convenience store, which effectively turned the entire city of El Paso into a "No Vending Zone."  It's another IJ victory for economic liberty and the right to earn an honest living, and a defeat for economic protectionism. 

Post Title

IJ Wins A Victory for Food Trucks in El Paso


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https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/05/ij-wins-victory-for-food-trucks-in-el.html


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U.K. North Sea Oil Companies "Going Galt"

    UK Independent -- "North Sea oil production has slowed to its lowest level since records began 15 years ago following the Chancellor of the Exchequer's recent tax raid on the industry. An update from the U.K. Department of Energy yesterday showed the biggest fall in oil production since quarterly records started in 1995. Gas production fell 17.6 per cent from a year ago.

    The slowdown follows the Chancellor's controversial Budget decision to increase the supplementary tax on North Sea Oil production to 32 per cent from 20 per cent to pay for a cut in petrol duty. The Chancellor's decision drew an industry-wide outcry and claims that mature fields would be closed.

    An Oil and Gas UK survey warned that a quarter of 240 potential projects in the North Sea were less likely to go ahead after the tax increase."

    MP: Let this be a lesson to the Senate Democrats who are proposing to burden (punish?) America's five biggest oil companies with $21 billion in additional income taxes over the next decade.

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U.K. North Sea Oil Companies "Going Galt"


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The Oil-Autocracy Link and Drill, Drill, Drill

    The chart above is from a Bloomberg article and shows that "Most of the world's oil is produced in states that are undemocratic. The U.S., Canada and Norway are the exceptions."

    The article refers to this 2009 research paper "Oil and Democracy Revisited" by UCLA professor Michael Ross whose findings include:

    a) "Oil wealth strongly inhibits democratic transitions in authoritarian states, and b) Oil’s anti-democratic effects seem to vary over time and across regions: they have grown stronger over time, but do not hold in Latin America.

    The mechanism that seems to account for the oil-autocracy link is the ‘rentier effect’ – the combination of low taxes and high government spending that seems to dampen support for democratic transitions."

    MP: The oil-autocracy link is one of the indirect costs of our "dependence on foreign oil" because we provide support to authoritarian states and inhibit the growth of democracy in those countries.  This is one more reason to drill, drill, drill domestically, in places like the Eagle Ford Field in Texas, which is featured in yesterday's NY Times:

    "The Texas field, known as the Eagle Ford, is just one of about 20 new onshore oil fields that advocates say could collectively increase the nation’s oil output by 25 percent within a decade — without the dangers of drilling in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico or the delicate coastal areas off Alaska. More than a dozen companies plan to drill up to 3,000 wells there in the next 12 months."

    MP: It's all made possible by the technological "miracle" of "fracking," which is not without its critics and controversy, here's more from the NY Times:

    "There is only one catch: the oil from the Eagle Ford and similar fields of tightly packed rock can be extracted only by using hydraulic fracturing, a method that uses a high-pressure mix of water, sand and hazardous chemicals to blast through the rocks to release the oil inside.

    The technique, also called fracking, has been widely used in the last decade to unlock vast new fields of natural gas, but drillers only recently figured out how to release large quantities of oil, which flows less easily through rock than gas. As evidence mounts that fracking poses risks to water supplies, the federal government and regulators in various states are considering tighter regulations on it." 

    The oil industry says any environmental concerns are far outweighed by the economic benefits of pumping previously inaccessible oil from fields that could collectively hold two or three times as much oil as Prudhoe Bay, the Alaskan field that was the last great onshore discovery. The companies estimate that the boom will create more than two million new jobs, directly or indirectly, and bring tens of billions of dollars to the states where the fields are located, which include traditional oil sites like Texas and Oklahoma, industrial stalwarts like Ohio and Michigan and even farm states like Kansas."

    It’s the one thing we have seen in our adult lives that could take us away from imported oil,” said Aubrey McClendon, chief executive of Chesapeake Energy, one of the most aggressive drillers. “What if we have found three of the world’s biggest oil fields in the last three years right here in the U.S.? How transformative could that be for the U.S. economy?”

    “This is very big and it’s coming on very fast,” said Daniel Yergin, the chairman of IHS CERA. “This is like adding another Venezuela or Kuwait by 2020, except these tight oil fields are in the United States.”

    Thanks to Thomas Keene and Dan Greller for the pointers.  

Post Title

The Oil-Autocracy Link and Drill, Drill, Drill


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What's Stopping Job Creation at Medium-Sized Firms? It's Washington's "Climate of Uncertainty"

    I highly recommend this very insightful Bloomberg article "Economic Stagnation Explained, at 30,000 Feet" by Yale law professor Stephen Carter, based on his conversation while flying and sitting next to a successful business owner, about how regulatory and tax uncertainty is preventing job creation at small and medium firms.

    Because he faces a "climate of uncertainty" created in Washington, the successful business owner refuses to hire new employees despite rising demand and sales for his company's products.  

    “How can I hire new workers today," he asks, "when I don’t know how much they will cost me tomorrow? I don’t understand," he continues, "why Washington won’t just get out of our way and let us hire. Government should act like my assistant, not my boss.”

    About the businessman and seat-mate, Professor Carter writes:

    "He’s not anti-government. He’s not anti-regulation. He just needs to know as he makes his plans that the rules aren’t going to change radically. Big businesses don’t face the same problem, he says. They have lots of customers to spread costs over. They have “installed base.” 

    For medium-sized firms like his, however, there is little wiggle room to absorb the costs of regulatory change. Because he possesses neither lobbyists nor clout, he says, Washington doesn’t care whether he hires more workers or closes up shop."

    MP:  Thanks to the anonymous businessman for making a very strong "laissez-faire" ("allow to do" in French) case for job creation.

    HT: Pete Friedlander

Post Title

What's Stopping Job Creation at Medium-Sized Firms? It's Washington's "Climate of Uncertainty"


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After-Tax Profits Reach Record High in Q1


    Corporate profits after tax (unadjusted) reached a new record high in the first quarter of 2011 of almost $1.5 trillion. 

    After adjustments for inventory and depreciation, after-tax corporate profits in the first quarter dipped slightly from the all-time high in the last quarter of 2010, but remained above the pre-recession peak levels of 2006 for the second consecutive month, both in nominal and real terms (see chart above).  It was the seventh consecutive quarterly increase in real profits from their year-earlier level following ten straight quarters of annual declines starting in 2007, and suggests that corporate profitability has completely recovered from the effects of the 2007-2009 recession.  Looking ahead, the record-level profits mean that U.S. companies now have the resources to propel the expansion forward with increased spending on capital investments and increased hiring. 

    See also Scott Grannis' related post "Corporate Profits Remain Very Strong."

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After-Tax Profits Reach Record High in Q1


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State Tax Collections Increase by 9.1% in the First Quarter, Largest Annual Gain in Almost Five Years

    The Rockefeller Institute of Government reported this week that tax collections by state governments are showing strong improvements in the first quarter of this year compared to the same quarter of 2010.  Overall, tax collections increased by 9.1% in the first quarter of 2011 (based on preliminary tax collection data from 47 early reporting states), which is the largest increase since the second quarter of 2006, almost five years ago (see chart above).  The largest gain in the quarter came from a 12.4% increase in personal income tax collections, followed by increases in corporate income taxes (6.9%) and sales taxes (5.6%).  

    Related reports: 

    1. Unexpected state revenue in California leaps to $6.6 billion. (HT: Steve Bartin)

    2. Massachusetts tax collections up 43 percent in April. (HT: Ben Cunningham)

Post Title

State Tax Collections Increase by 9.1% in the First Quarter, Largest Annual Gain in Almost Five Years


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Bloomberg Profiles Tyler Cowen

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Bloomberg Profiles Tyler Cowen


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Something To Think About

    The holiday weekend is upon us and perhaps you have already left the office.

    Here is something to think about over the long weekend.

    India's Chief Economic Adviser, the economist Kaushik Basu, recently posted a paper titled "Why, for a Class of Bribes, the Act of Giving a Bribe Should be Treated as Legal" (here).

    The abstract is as follows.

    "The paper puts forward a small but novel idea of how we can cut down the incidence of bribery. There are different kinds of bribes and what this paper is concerned with are bribes that people often have to give to get what they are legally entitled to. I shall call these harassment bribes. Suppose an income tax refund is held back from a taxpayer till he pays some cash to the officer. Suppose government allots subsidized land to a person but when the person goes to get her paperwork done and receive documents for this land, she is asked to pay a hefty bribe. These are all illustrations of harassment bribes. Harassment bribery is widespread in India and it plays a large role in breeding inefficiency and has a corrosive effect on civil society. The central message of this paper is that we should declare the act of giving a bribe in all such cases as legitimate activity. In other words the giver of a harassment bribe should have full immunity from any punitive action by the state.

    It is argued that this will cause a sharp decline in the incidence of bribery. The reasoning is that once the law is altered in this manner, after the act of bribery is committed, the interests of the bribe giver and the bribe taker will be at divergence. The bribe giver will be willing to cooperate in getting the bribe taker caught. Knowing that this will happen, the bribe taker will be deterred from taking a bribe.

    It should be emphasized that what is being argued in this paper is not a retrospective pardon for bribe-giving. Retrospective pardons are like amnesties. They encourage rather than discourage corrupt behavior by rewarding the corrupt. And, in the process, they corrode society‘s morals."

    See here for the recent CNN segment "What in the World" for more on Basu's proposal as well as other innovative ideas to reduce bribery and corruption.

    The solution Basu addresses would seem most applicable to domestic bribery where a prosecuting agency has jurisdiction over both the bribe payor and bribe recipient. That is not the case in a typical FCPA scenario, but Basu's paper and proposal is indeed interesting, thought provoking material.

    *****

    Finally, a previous post (here) discussed customer rewards programs and the SEC's interest in RAE Systems.

    Turns out there is an interest in this general issue on the other side of the Atlantic as well.

    The office of Richard Alderman (Director of the U.K. Serious Fraud Office) alerted me to a recent speech he gave (here) at the 2011 International Medical Device Industry Compliance Conference. In the speech, Alderman talked about the soon-to-go live Bribery Act, self reporting, and the SFO's relationship with the DOJ.

    Alderman also talked about "incentive payments" and stated as follows.

    "What I am also seeing is corporates having a hard look at some of the arrangements that are in fact justifiable for commercial reasons but which have not been scrutinized before with a view to seeing whether or not there are risks of bribery. Let me give you an example. Incentive payments. These are a common feature of many industries and I suspect of your own as well. I know that a number of companies and a number of industry organisations have been looking at this issue in order to see whether there are risks when the Bribery Act comes into force. We have had a number of meetings in the SFO with corporates and industry bodies about this issue. We have been able to talk through the issues and offer reassurance.

    Clearly, these incentive payments are normally designed for commercial reasons and are commercially justifiable. There are risks though. What we have been talking about with corporates is the need for transparency and, in particular, the need to know where the money goes and the fact that it is justifiable. We also talk about the need for a senior person at the corporate's head office to have visibility of what is happening and to be satisfied that what is happening is justifiable.

    This may well be a feature of your own industry (and indeed I imagine that it probably is) and it may be that this is something that you want to discuss."

    *****

    A good weekend to all.

Post Title

Something To Think About


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Stock Market Overview for 5/26/11

    During regular trading hours, there were many stocks that continued to break up to the upside. These stocks are usually going up  with news.If you are looking to day trade today, you might want to check out the following stocks. I usually throw these on my watch list and monitor with resistance & support levels. Below are a list of stocks that I am watching for May 27,2011.Also check out my Top 2011 Stock GainersStocks to Buy 2011.You can also check previous stocks to buy reports- Right Here

    Top Stocks Performance of the day:These are  stocks that continued to break up to the upside or down side. These stocks are usually going up or down with news or technical.If you are looking to day trade, you might want to check out the following stocks.

    Top Gainers: CDTI, KBX, SYMS, NATR, FSIN, HGG   
    New High:  SYMS, TIF, IMOS, TRMS
    Overbought: RAE, AMMD
    Unusual Volume:  CDTI, ISHG, IRMS, TRMS  
    Upgrade:  CTSH 
    Earnings Before: DLIA
    Insider Buying: SWS
     
    For Market TA analysis
    Stock Market  Closing Price 5/26/11
     

    $INDU Dow Industrial Close -   12402.76 Up 8.10
    $COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Close  
    2782.92 Up 21.54
    $SPX S&P 500 Close -  1325.69 Up 5.22

    Commodities Closing Price 

    Gold Close -  1519

    Oil Close - 100.31

    Natural Gas Close -4.36

    Silver  37.42
     
    SP 500
    Long term signals : Bullish
    Short term signals : Neutral

    Stop  @ 1250
    QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) : Bullish, stop @ 55
    INDU: Bullish, stop @11000
    COMPQ:Bullish, stop @ 2600
    Top trend : Techs  
    Value : Financial

    Euro Dollar : Bullish
    US Dollar index : Bearish  
    Gold : Bearish, stop @ 1330
    10 Y US Yield : Bullish, above 2.8 stop
    30 Y US Bond : Short, stop @ 132

    World Market
    UK's FTSE:  Bullish, stop @ 5700
    Germany's DAX: Bullish, stop @ 6340
    France's CAC: Bullish, stop @ 3800
    Shanghai : Bullish
    Japan Nikkei : Bullish

    Stocks rose for a second day, erasing an early slide, as corporate earnings that beat forecasts overshadowed slower economic growth.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 1,325.69 at 4 p.m. in New York. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 1.5 percent as South Korean equities jumped the most since June 2009 after consumer confidence improved. Ten-year yields slid as low as 3.06 percent and 2-year rates reached 0.48 percent, while 10-year German bund yields fell below 3 percent for the first time since January. Commodities retreated even as the dollar weakened against most major peers.Support for the SPX remains at 1305 and then 1295, with resistance at 1330 and then 1340.So we should trade small lot.Take a look all 1/5/15/60m chart if we want to trade this market. 
    I also have  technical analysis different stocks-Right Here. 
     
    Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
    $SPX - 60 min
    ALL QUICK LOOK INDEX DAILY CHARTS
    QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
    $USD
    $VIX
    $CPC daily
    $SPX, $USD & $VIX
    INDEX Bullish percent index (EOD)
    Simple Trading System  
    QQQQ Daily 
    COMPQ



    FOR 05/27 SPX resistance, pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1342.61, R2 1336.97, R1 1331.33
    Pivot Point 1322.87
    Support  S1 1317.23, S2 1308.77, S3 1303.13 
     





    For the latest updates on the stock market, visit,
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Stock Market Overview for 5/26/11


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Intrade Founder and CEO John Delaney, R.I.P.

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Intrade Founder and CEO John Delaney, R.I.P.


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State of the Union May 25, 2011

    May 25, 2011 oline at www.uawlocal2250.com


    General Motors is adding two shifts and about 2,500 hourly and salaried jobs at the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant to build the new Chevrolet Malibu mid-size sedan and the next-generation Impala large sedan alongside the Chevrolet Volt and Opel Ampera electric cars. GM on Wednesday announced the additional shifts and a $69 million investment in tooling and equipment to support the next-generation Impala. In April 2010, GM announced a $121 million investment to support Malibu production. “Filling this plant with new work is very satisfying because GM is dedicated to helping rebuild this city,” GM North America President Mark Reuss said at the plant Wednesday. “We are confident in the flexibility of the plant, the excellence of our workers and the great cars assembled here.” Joe Ashton, UAW vice president-GM Department, said “Given the competitive nature of the auto industry in the United States, the bar for success is placed very high. The members of UAW Local 22 soar over the bar every day by demonstrating their flexibility, hard work, and their intense focus on the customer. This workforce understands that meeting our diverse and sophisticated customers’ need for high-quality and reliable transportation is our most important task.”

    From USA Today: Nearly six of 10 Americans — 57% — say they won't buy an all-electric car no matter the price of gas, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. That's a stiff headwind just as automakers are developing electrics to help meet tighter federal rules that could require their fleets to average as high as 62 miles per gallon in 2025. And President Obama has set a goal of a million electric vehicles in use in the U.S. by 2015. The anti-electric sentiment unmasked by the poll shows that pure electrics — defined in the poll question as "an electric car that you could only drive for a limited number of miles at one time" — could have trouble getting a foothold in the U.S. Nissan (ever in denial) interprets the poll numbers as a good sign, pointing out that "as many as 40% are considering driving electric vehicles." Researcher J.D. Power and Associates projects sales of pure electrics this year will be 10,727, rising to 95,939 in 2015. Industry estimates for total 2011 light-vehicle sales are in the 13 million range, rising to about 14 million by 2015.

    From the Detroit News: The Obama administration unveiled revamped fuel economy labels today — including new ratings for electric vehicles — but dropped a proposal to assign "A+" through "D" grades for vehicle efficiency. The decision — announced this morning by the administration — is a win for automakers that have lobbied against the letter grades, worried that it would have deterred customers from buying larger vehicles that got poor grades. The new labels — required by a 2007 energy law and jointly revised by the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — will take effect with the 2013 model year. The new label retain the traditional focus on miles per gallon and annual fuel costs, while updating the overall design and adding required new comparison information on fuel economy and emissions. The new labels have some new features, including a QR Code that will allow users of smartphones to access online information about how various models compare on fuel economy. Consumers will be to enter information about their commutes and driving behavior to get a more precise estimate of fuel costs. (Below is an example label from a Ford F150 pickup with a 3.7 liter V6)

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State of the Union May 25, 2011


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State of the Union May 26, 2011

    May 26, 2011 online at www.uawlocal2250.com


    From Chairman Mike Bullock: Unfortunately there will be extra overtime to make up the lost jobs due to the 10-hour body shop breakdown Monday. The Memorandum of Understanding on Overtime (page 243 of the National Agreement), paragraph 12, Emergencies, reads, “The provisions of this Memorandum of Understanding that limit or restrict the right of Management to require employees to work daily overtime or Saturdays or Sundays shall be suspended in any plant whose operations are interrupted by emergency situations such as single breakdowns of four hours or more…” The lost production – 80 units – will be made up off of K-line. On a positive note, welcome back to 4 members recalled today. The new seniority date to hold the plant is 7-14-2008 with a last four of 6050. Also, Friday is a VR blackout day and Monday is the holiday qualifying day and a VR blackout day.

    From the Chaplaincy Committee: The 11th Annual Blessing of the Bikes will be today 15 minutes after the longest first shift line time at the Arch in front of the plant. You don’t need your bikes to attend. Also there is a memorial service today at lunch for Duane “Cadillac” Anderson in stamping at the bleachers, column V-8.

    Resumes for the 2011 UAW-LUPA Communications Conference at Black Lake are being accepted at the Union Hall through next Friday. The conference runs from Sunday, June 12 through Friday, June 17. Applicants should have computer and writing skills as one of the main tasks will be running the Local 2250 website.

    GM has issued a media advisory, “General Motors and United Auto Workers leaders will make a positive news announcement on Thursday the Arlington Assembly Plant in Texas.” The Detroit Free Press is reporting that an investment will be announced that will add 110 jobs.

    From Bloomberg: General Motors’ plan to build the Chevrolet Impala in a Michigan plant next year “creates a sense of nervousness” for the Ontario factory that makes the sedan now, the Canadian Auto Workers’ leader said. Workers at the Oshawa, Ontario, factory don’t know what the consequences will be from GM’s announcement today that it will spend $69 million and create 2,500 jobs at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant to add production of the Impala and Chevrolet Malibu, CAW President Ken Lewenza said today in a telephone interview. “It creates a sense of nervousness because you need the market to substantiate two facilities building the same vehicle,” he said. “If the market isn’t there, one would have to take a look and question GM’s decision when they already had the investment in the Oshawa facility.” Jason Easton, a spokesman for Detroit-based GM, said in response to Lewenza’s comments, “We have made public Canadian production commitments and fully intend to meet those targets.” The company has said annual output in Canada will be at least 16 percent of GM’s total North American production and will be equal to 19 percent of what it builds in the U.S.

    From Reuters: Volkswagen AG has opened a U.S. assembly plant that boasts ultra-low labor costs, but General Motors and United Auto Workers officials do not see it affecting this summer's labor talks. "I'm not sure there's any impact," GM North American President Mark Reuss said of the lower wages at the VW plant. "The partnership we have with Joe Ashton and Bob King is to be competitive in our workforce in these plants in the United States and North America," he added, referring respectively to the head of the UAW's GM department and the union president. Reuss told assembled workers that GM was investing in the company's relationship with the UAW as it heads into the talks for a new labor deal. On Wednesday, Ashton said hourly workers earning second-tier wages make up only 3 percent of the Big Three U.S. automakers' workforce and had become an "obsession" for many. "This will be just like any other normal set of negotiations," Ashton said. "GM, Ford and Chrysler were very profitable this year with their labor costs. "People are starting to realize, especially in this country, how productive the Big Three auto workers are." While agreeing that the share of workers being paid second-tier wages will rise as U.S. automakers add jobs, Ashton said there are still some workers on layoff who, when recalled, will make the higher, traditional wages. He acknowledged the U.S. automakers need the second tier to be competitive. Moving workers earning the lower wages up to a higher level will be discussed during the contract talks, but agreeing to cut wages further is not on the union's agenda, Ashton said. The auto industry helped build the U.S. middle class, and $14 an hour is not a middle-class wage, Ashton said. "We're not looking to make the plants uncompetitive, but we're looking (for) people to make a decent wage, and that will be part of our negotiations," he said. "I think $13.87 an hour, you can apply for food stamps."

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State of the Union May 26, 2011


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Profitable Insider Trading..... Inside the Beltway

    Washington Times -- "An extensive study released Wednesday in the journal Business and Politics found that the investments of members of the House of Representatives outperformed those of the average investor by 55 basis points per month, or 6 percent annually, suggesting that lawmakers are taking advantage of inside information to fatten their stock portfolios.

    To the frustration of open-government advocates, lawmakers and their staff members largely have immunity from laws barring trading on insider knowledge that have sent many a private corporate chieftain to prison.

    Strict laws ban corporate executives from trading on their insider knowledge, but no restrictions exist for members of Congress. Lawmakers are permitted to keep their holdings and trade shares on the market, as well as vote on legislation that could affect their portfolio values."

    HT: Mike LaFaive

    MP: How about we just "legalize it?"  Insider trading that is. 

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Profitable Insider Trading..... Inside the Beltway


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Global Sticks Moves from China to Thunder Bay

    Jeff Rubin -- "Why has Global Sticks, a manufacturer of wooden ice cream sticks, moving from Dalian, China to Thunder Bay, Ontario? It’s the kind of low margin manufacturing that is never supposed to come back after it leaves North America for cheaper labour abroad.

    But wage costs are no longer everything they were cranked up to be. In today’s world of soaring energy costs, power rationing and export taxes on key commodities such as wood, wage gaps are less important. When the power goes off, it suddenly doesn’t matter if your labor is expensive.  Factories don’t run on sweat alone."


    Thunder Bay -- "The Global Sticks factory will produce up to six billion food-grade wood sticks each year from northern white birch, a species that is underutilized by the forestry industry. The decision to relocate to North America came as a result of the recognition that manufacturing wooden sticks in China was going to become a much more difficult and expensive process given increasing fuel costs. With assistance from the province, Global Sticks will switch from sourcing products from China to manufacturing products at a new, state-of-the art facility in Thunder Bay that created 50 construction jobs. The new plant will employ 130 permanent workers and produce a variety of wooden sticks used for ice cream bars, corn dogs, tongue depressors for doctors and nurses, and paint paddles (see photo above)."

    MP: We can probably expect a lot more of this type of shift in manufacturing production from China back to Canada and the U.S.  The Boston Consulting Group predicts that "Sometime around 2015, manufacturers will be indifferent between locating in America or China for production for consumption in America."  Important factors include rising wages and prices in China, an appreciating yuan, and rising energy costs both for production in China and for shipping goods to North America. 

    HT: Brad Parkes

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Global Sticks Moves from China to Thunder Bay


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The Final Act In The BAE Circus?

    Last week, the State Department announced (here) that "BAE Systems plc of the United Kingdom (BAES), including its businesses, units, subsidiaries, and operating divisions and their assignees and successors, except BAE Systems, Inc. and its subsidiaries, entered into a civil settlement with the Department of State for alleged violations of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR)." The release states that "under the four-year term of the Consent Agreement, BAES will pay in fines and in remedial compliance measures an aggregate civil penalty of $79 million, the largest civil penalty in Department history."

    The State Department action follows the March 1, 2010 guilty plea of BAE Systems plc. (see here for the prior post). BAE pleaded guilty to "conspiring to defraud the United States by impairing and impeding its lawful functions, to make false statements about its FCPA compliance program, and to violate the Arms Export Control Act and International Traffic in Arms Regulations." In that DOJ enforcement action, BAE Systems plc agreed to pay a $400 million criminal fine.

    I previously called (here) the BAE "bribery, yet no bribery" enforcement action one that contributes to the "facade of FCPA enforcement" (see here) and was asked several questions about the enforcement action by former Senator Arlen Specter (see here).

    Like the DOJ enforcement action, the State Department action specifically notes that BAE Systems, Inc. was not involved in the conduct giving rise to the enforcement actions. BAE Systems Inc. is "the U.S.-based segment of BAE Systems plc" and "is responsible for relationships with the U.S. Government...". (See here).

    The State Department action involved BAE Systems plc entering into a consent decree (see here for the relevant documents) "to settle 2,591 violations of the AECA and ITAR in connection with the unauthorized brokering of U.S. defense articles and services, failure to register as a broker, failure to file annual broker reports, causing unauthorized brokering, failure to report the payment of fees or commissions, and failure to maintain records involving ITAR-controlled transactions."

    Certain of the improper conduct identified in the State Department documents relate to the lease and lease/sale of Gripen aircraft to the Ministries of Defence in the Czech Republic and Hungary - conduct also at issue in the DOJ's prosecution of BAE (see here for the criminal information).

    The State Department documents also relate to BAE's use of advisers for defense transactions and proposed defense transactions involving U.S. defense articles and services without obtaining authorization from the State Department.

    One of the advisors identified is Alfons Mensdorff-Pouilly. As noted in this previous post, the U.K. Serious Fraud Office ("SFO") originally charged Alfons Mensdorff-Pouilly with "conspiracy to corrupt" and for "conspiring with others to give or agree to give corrupt payments [...] to unknown officials and other agents of certain Eastern and Central European governments, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria as inducements to secure, or as rewards for having secured, contracts from those governments for the supply of goods to them, namely SAAB/Gripen fighter jets, by BAE Systems Plc." Within days, the SFO dropped the charges. As noted in this previous post, the SFO explained that BAE would not agree to the SFO plea (watered down as it was) without the SFO agreeing to drop the charges against Count Mensdorff.

    As to debarment, the State Department consent agreement states (at page 20) that the State "Department has determined to impose a statutory debarment of BAE Systems plc pursuant to section 127 of the ITAR [see here], based on the criminal charges [in the previous DOJ enforcement action].

    Yet, the next sentence of the consent decree states as follows. "However, based on the foregoing and additional information provided by Respondent, and request for reinstatement by BAE Systems plc, the Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs has determined under Section 38(g)(4) of the AECA [see here] that Respondent has taken appropriate steps to address the causes of the violations and to mitigate law enforcement concerns. Accordingly, BAE Systems plc shall be reinstated."

    The consent decree did however "place under a policy of denial" BAE Systems CS&S International, Red Diamond Trading Ltd. and Poseidon Trading Investments Ltd. Per the consent decree, this means that there will be "an initial presumption of denial during the case-by-case review of all licenses and other authorizations" involving these subsidiaries even though the consent decree states that "Transaction Exceptions" may be granted by the State Department. Furthermore, the consent decree states that all licenses, agreements, and other authorizations involving these subsidiaries previously issued "are not affected and are not revoked."

    The most recent annual report on BAE's website states as follows regarding CS&S International. "The operating group’s CS&S International business predominantly acts as prime contractor for the UK government-to government defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and has a major in-country presence. Its main activities include operational capability support to both the Royal Saudi Air Force and Royal Saudi Naval Force and, more recently, the commencement of supply of 72 Typhoon aircraft." Neither Red Diamond Trading Ltd. nor Poseidon Trading Investments Ltd. are mentioned in the 190 page annual report.

    According to this U.K. Guardian article "BAE's Secret Money Machine," "in February 1998 Red Diamond Trading Ltd was anonymously incorporated in the British Virgin Islands and was used to channel payments all over the world, via Red Diamond accounts in London, Switzerland and New York." As to Poseidon Trading, the same article states as follows. "BAE set up a second front company, purely to handle the Saudi commission payments for al-Yamamah. Poseidon Trading Investments Ltd was incorporated in the British Virgin Islands on June 25 1999."

    The DOJ's criminal information contains various allegations regarding Saudi Arabia - without specifically mentioning the al-Yamamah contract. For more on the al-Yamamah contract see here -a PBS Frontline documentary titled Black Money.

    The State Department's recent $79 million enforcement action against BAE is in addition to the DOJ's $400 million enforcement action against BAE from 2010. However, as Dru Stevenson (Professor of Law, South Texas College of Law) and Nick Wagoner (a law student at South Texas College of Law) explored in this recent post, in the 365 days that followed the 2010 DOJ enforcement action, BAE was awarded U.S. contracts in excess of $58 billion dollars.

    *****

    Speaking of debarment (or lack thereof) Senator Al Franken continues to lead on this issue. Earlier this month, during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Franken questioned Attorney General Eric Holder why, over the past three years, hundreds of billions of dollars have been awarded to defense contractors who have previously been convicted of fraud. See here for the video. Senator Franken similarly questioned Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer during a January Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. See here for the video.

    In connection with the Senate's November 2010 hearing "Examining Enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act" the DOJ was asked whether it favored "mandatory, conduct-based, debarment remedy for companies that engage in egregious bribery." See here for the prior post including the DOJ's response.

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The Final Act In The BAE Circus?


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Do Anti-Dumping Tariffs on Furniture from China Create U.S. Jobs? Only for Washington Lawyers



    From the Washington Post article "From China, An End Run Around U.S. Tariffs"

    "To avoid a 2005 U.S. tariff on Chinese-made wooden bedroom furniture, Chinese furniture companies moved operations to other Asian countries, thwarting U.S. efforts to curb “dumping,” the export of goods at unfairly low prices (see chart above).

    The result: Imports now account for about 70 percent of the U.S. market for beds and similar items, up from 58 percent before Washington intervened to try and protect domestic manufacturers from Chinese “dumping,” or the export of goods at unfairly low prices.

    The only Americans getting more work as a result of the tariffs are Washington lawyers, who have been hired by both U.S. and Chinese companies. Their work includes haggling each year over private “settlement” payments that Chinese manufacturers denounce as a 'protection racket.'"

    Cato's Dan Ikenson responds thoughtfully here on the Forbes blog.

    Update: The chart below shows the significant decline in the CPI for Furniture and Bedding over the last ten years, which is now at about the same level as in the early 1990s.  Thanks largely to competitively priced imports, Americans today have the most affordable furniture in U.S. history.  

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Do Anti-Dumping Tariffs on Furniture from China Create U.S. Jobs? Only for Washington Lawyers


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State of the Union May 24, 2011

    May 24, 2011 online at www.uawlocal2250.com


    Recently there have been several instances where eligible employees/retirees have been unable to get their employee discount for a new vehicle purchase. If that has happened to you or anyone you know, you can see Robyn Bohn in personnel or call her at x2124 to get reinstated. Also, a recent audit of the Bommarito South dealership has generated letters from GM to customers using the employee discount informing them they have violated the rules of the program and are subject to penalty and suspension from the program. These notices are not accurate and correction letters should be forthcoming. The misunderstanding was apparently due to a free service offered by the dealer. Here is what the rules state: “Participants shall not solicit or accept money or discounts from dealers, other persons or other business entities, except GM sponsored incentives, in connection with the sale of vehicles under The Programs. At no time should a Participant accept payment or other consideration from dealers for referrals. Participants may accept inducements of nominal value, up to $50, provided the inducements are offered to the general public and are noncash in nature, such as a free first oil change. This prohibition does not apply to a fuel fill if provided by the dealer at the time of delivery.” If you have any issues with new vehicle purchases you should always call 1-800-235-4646.

    From TruckTrend: Cummins appears to be in the advanced stages of developing a four-cylinder diesel engine that could potentially be offered in trucks sold in the U.S. In January 2010, the DOE provided Cummins with $15 million to help fund development of an efficient diesel for light-truck use. Cummins began work last September with a goal to produce a diesel engine that would nearly double the efficiency of a Nissan Titan equipped with the current gasoline 5.6L V8 engine while not exceeding strict Tier 2 Bin 2 emissions standards. Cummins hopes to achieve 28 mpg combined with the new engine. A two-wheel drive Titan is currently rated at 15 mpg combined city and highway. The prototype engine – likely based on the European market Cummins ISF2.8 – produced 350 lb-feet of torque during a recent dyno test. Cummins has set the final target output at 220 hp and 380 lb-ft of torque. The Titan's V8 puts out a bit more (317 hp and 385 lb-ft of torque).

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State of the Union May 24, 2011


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Bank Profits Are Highest Since Early 2007

    From the FDIC's Quarterly Banking Profile:

    "Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported an aggregate profit of $29 billion in the first quarter of 2011, an $11.6 billion improvement (66.5 percent) from the $17.4 billion in net income the industry reported in the first quarter of 2010. This is the seventh consecutive quarter that earnings registered a year-over-year increase. For the sixth consecutive quarter, reduced provisions for loan losses drove the improvement in earnings.  Net income was the best for the industry since the $36.8 billion earned in the second quarter of 2007 (see chart above).

    "The industry shows continuing signs of improvement," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. She added, "though there is a limit to how far reductions in loan-loss provisions can boost industry earnings."

    More than half of all institutions (56 percent) reported better quarterly net income from a year ago, and only 15 percent had a net loss for the quarter. The average return on assets (ROA), a basic yardstick of profitability, rose to 0.87 percent from 0.53 percent a year ago.


    The number of institutions on the "Problem List" flattened. The net increase of four, to 888, is the smallest in three-and-a-half years. The number of "problem" institutions is the highest since March 31, 1993, when there were 928. Total assets of "problem" institutions increased from $390 billion to $397 billion. Twenty-six insured institutions failed during the first quarter, the smallest number in the last seven quarters."

    MP: Despite the strong rebound in bank profits to pre-recession levels, there was a 3.2% annual decline in bank revenues in the first quarter and an accompanying decline in loan balances, suggesting that bank credit availability is still lagging (see Washington Post story here).  But the fact that bank profits have fully recovered to early 2007 levels is another sign that the worst of the financial crisis is far behind us, and the U.S. banking system is once again healthy and profitable.

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Bank Profits Are Highest Since Early 2007


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