Our Biggest Budget Issue: Increased Spending on Payments to Individuals, i.e. "Entitlement Nation"


    I'm sure most of us are experiencing "debt ceiling overload" by now and will be happy that a deal was just reached (it's 8:50 p.m.).  Over the last month, we've heard endless debates on federal spending, federal spending as a share of GDP, the $14 trillion ever-increasing federal debt, the the federal debt as a share of GDP, spending cuts as a condition to raise the debt limit, possible revenue/tax increases, a possible balanced budget amendment later, etc.  

    But there's an important issue about federal spending that's been pretty much completely overlooked in all of the debates, and it's an issue that was discussed on a CD post back in February.  In that post, I featured an editorial by AOL opinion editor John Merline who pointed out "the biggest thing the federal government does these days is cut checks to individuals."

    In 2010, the OMB reports (Table 6.1 Composition of Outlays, 1940-2016) that the federal government spent $3.45 trillion, and made about $2.3 trillion in "payments to individuals," which was about two-thirds (66.13%) of total federal spending last year, the highest ever in history (see top chart above).   And that category was more than three times larger than the share of 2010 federal spending on defense (20.1%) and more than 11 times larger than the share spent on net interest (5.7%).  

    Where does all that money go? The bottom chart displays a percentage breakdown of the $2.3 trillion in payments to individuals for 2010, and shows that more than 76% of those payments were for Social Security and Medicare, about 14.4% was for spending on the poor (public assistance, food assistance, and housing assistance), 7% on unemployment insurance payments, and 2.4% on student assistance.

    And John pointed out in his AOL editorial that "The biggest of these direct payment programs -- Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid -- are also the fastest growing in the federal budget."

    So while it looks like the short-term problem has been temporarily fixed with an increase in the debt limit, the long term problem won't be fixed until we address the nation's most serious problem: we're increasingly becoming an "entitlement nation," with "payments to individuals" increasing both in absolute dollar amounts and as a share of total federal spending, or in the words of John Merline:

    "The federal government has over the years essentially turned into a gigantic wealth-transfer machine -- taking money from a shrinking pool of taxpayers and giving it out to a growing list of favored groups. This situation will make getting the federal budget under control increasingly difficult, since it will invariably involve pitting those writing checks against those cashing them."

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Our Biggest Budget Issue: Increased Spending on Payments to Individuals, i.e. "Entitlement Nation"


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Markets in Everything: Virtual Mobile Phone Grocery Stores in South Korea Subway Stations



    HT: Eric

Post Title

Markets in Everything: Virtual Mobile Phone Grocery Stores in South Korea Subway Stations


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The Mancession Continues: Men Have Lost 192 Jobs for Every 100 Jobs Lost by Women Since Jan. 2008

    In early July, the Pew Research Center released a study titled "In Two Years of Economic Recovery, Women Lost Jobs, Men Found Them," with the opening statement:

    "The sluggish recovery from the Great Recession has been better for men than for women. From the end of the recession in June 2009 through May 2011, men gained 768,000 jobs and lowered their unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points to 9.5%. Women, by contrast, lost 218,000 jobs during the same period, and their unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%.

    These post-recession employment trends are a sharp turnabout from the gender patterns that prevailed during the recession itself, when men lost more than twice as many jobs as women. Men accounted for 5.4 million, or 71%, of the 7.5 million jobs that disappeared from the U.S. economy from December 2007 through June 2009. Employment trends during the recovery have favored men over women in all but one of the 16 major sectors of the economy."

    A flurry of news reports followed, including on the front page of the Washington Post ("Men, hit hardest in recession, are getting work faster than women"), at CNN Money ("Was the 'mancession' just a mirage?"), and most recently last Friday by Andrew Sullivan (Mancession Replaced with Hecovery"), who cites the Good Business blog saying that men "have gained 805,000 jobs, but women have lost a total of 281,000" since the recession ended.

    Most of the news reports seemed to have missed this key paragraph in the Pew Center report (emphasis added):

    "Although the latest trends in employment are working in favor of men, the full period of the recession and the recovery has set men back more than women. From December 2007 to May 2011, the employment of men has decreased from 70.7 million to 66.1 million, or by 4.6 million. For women, employment has fallen from 67.3 million to 64.9 million, or by 2.4 million. Thus, while men have taken an early lead in the recovery, they still have far more ground to cover than women to return to pre-recession employment levels."

    MP: The chart above helps to graphically illustrate the paragraph above by showing monthly employment levels for men and women from January 2002 to June 2011.  Although it's true that men have made greater employment gains since the recession ended, it's also true that men are still much worse off than women when we consider the entire period from January 2008 to June 2011.  The current number of payroll jobs in the U.S. (131 million) is about 7 million jobs below the peak of 138 million jobs in January of 2008 when the recession was first starting.  Of the 7 million jobs lost since 2008, men have lost 4.6 million or 65% of the total, compared to 2.4 million fewer jobs for women, or 35% of the total.  

    Bottom Line: Despite the recent job gains for men since early 2010, the Great Recession has still had a disproportionately and significantly negative effect on men compared to women, and it's not even close: For every 100 jobs lost by women since January 2008, men have lost 192 jobs, so it's still very much of a "mancession," despite the recent "hecovery."   

Post Title

The Mancession Continues: Men Have Lost 192 Jobs for Every 100 Jobs Lost by Women Since Jan. 2008


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Stock Market Technical Analysis for Next Week 7/31/11

    During regular trading hours, there were many stocks that continued to break up to the upside. These stocks are usually going up  with news.If you are looking to day trade today, you might want to check out the following stocks. I usually throw these on my watch list and monitor with resistance & support levels. Below are a list of stocks that I am watching for August 01, 2011. Also check out my Top 2011 Stock Gainers, Stocks to Buy 2011.You can also check previous stocks to buy reports- Right Here

    Top Stocks Performance of the day:These are  stocks that continued to break up to the upside or down side. These stocks are usually going up or down with news or technical.If you are looking to day trade, you might want to check out the following stocks. 

    Top Gainers: AHCI, ZOLL, STMP, SIFY, CNAM, MXWL
    New High: AHCI, ZOLL, CPSI, EVEP
    Overbought: EDAC, AHCI
    Unusual Volume: AHCI, PUI, RAND, LWC
    Upgrade: OMCL
    Earnings Before: AB
    Insider Buying:  SUPX  
     
    Biggest Gainers 7/29/11 
    Composite Biggest Gainers 
    Ticker     Company     Change
    CLUB    Town Sports International Holdings Inc.    24.25%
    AXTI    AXT Inc.    20.55%
    SKX    Skechers USA Inc.    18.53%
    GMCR    Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.    16.41%
    JVA    Coffee Holding Co.Inc.    16.01%
    RGR    Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.    15.87%
    CROX    CROCS Inc.    15.55%
    LIZ    Liz Claiborne Inc.    15.20%
    MBLX    Metabolix, Inc.    14.85%
    RNOW    Rightnow Technologies Inc.    14.43%
    LSI    LSI Corporation    14.13%
    GNC    GNC Corp.    12.75%
    SINO    Sino-Global Shipping America, Ltd.    12.73%
    ARRS    Arris Group Inc.    11.28%
    BWA    BorgWarner Inc.    10.94%
    OSUR    OraSure Technologies Inc.    10.33%
    AVEO    AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc.    10.01%
    TBI    TrueBlue, Inc.    9.61%
    HPY    Heartland Payment Systems, Inc.    9.51%
    BDC    Belden, Inc.    9.50%
    CAM    Cameron International Corporation    9.24%
    EQIX    Equinix, Inc.    8.83%
    SODA    SodaStream International Ltd.    8.82%
    VSI    Vitamin Shoppe, Inc.    8.59%
    BSX    Boston Scientific Corporation    8.49%
    GNK    Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.    8.27%
    PACR    Pacer International Inc.    8.12%
    ACH    Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited    7.29%
    MDF    Metropolitan Health Networks Inc.    6.91%
    COG    Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation    6.86%
    ECYT    Endocyte, Inc.    6.69%
    MCP    Molycorp, Inc.    6.53%
    MJN    Mead Johnson Nutrition Company    6.34%
    KRO    Kronos Worldwide Inc.    6.21%
    IPXL    Impax Laboratories Inc.    6.10%
    BC    Brunswick Corporation    5.88%
    WPP    Wausau Paper Corp.    5.87%
    ELNK    EarthLink Inc.    5.84%
    SYMC    Symantec Corporation    5.81%
    NOR    Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp.    5.61%
    GMT    GATX Corp.    5.52%
    SPN    Superior Energy Services Inc.    5.26%
    ILMN    Illumina Inc.    5.09%
    CREE    Cree Inc.    4.93%
    HLS    HEALTHSOUTH Corp.    4.92%
    SREV    ServiceSource International, In    4.88%
    CRI    Carter's, Inc.    4.81%
    TAL    TAL International Group, Inc.    4.77%
    SAVE    Spirit Airlines, Inc.    4.75%
    DEPO    DepoMed Inc.    4.69%
    MSI    Motorola Solutions, Inc.    4.63%
    TRLG    True Religion Apparel Inc.    4.58%
    CCI    Crown Castle International Corp.    4.55%
    EFX    Equifax Inc.    4.52%

    Composite Biggest Losers
    Ticker     Company     Chang
    SQNS    Sequans Communications S.A. Ame    -44.59%
    TQNT    TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc.    -26.74%
    MILL    Miller Petroleum, Inc.    -23.30%
    AKAM    Akamai Technologies Inc.    -19.13%
    HRC    Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc.    -17.39%
    IMAX    IMAX Corporation    -17.24%
    IPG    The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.    -16.28%
    STRA    Strayer Education Inc.    -14.66%
    AEA    Advance America, Cash Advance Centers Inc.    -13.54%
    OSK    Oshkosh Corporation    -13.33%
    RCL    Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.    -12.58%
    BABY    Natus Medical Inc.    -12.34%
    WIRE    Encore Wire Corp.    -10.51%
    MWW    Monster Worldwide, Inc.    -9.21%
    PSSI    PSS World Medical Inc.    -9.19%
    OI    Owens-Illinois, Inc.    -8.97%
    BMC    BMC Software Inc.    -8.75%
    WLL    Whiting Petroleum Corp.    -8.69%
    GTI    GrafTech International Ltd.    -8.49%
    ITRI    Itron, Inc.    -8.39%
    CPO    Corn Products International Inc.    -8.19%
    CBG    CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc.    -8.16%
    WM    Waste Management, Inc.    -7.97%
    GTLS    Chart Industries Inc.    -7.81%
    IVC    Invacare Corporation    -7.67%
    VAR    Varian Medical Systems Inc.    -7.63%
    HGR    Hanger Orthopedic Group Inc.    -7.43%
    COHR    Coherent Inc.    -7.39%
    HOLI    Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ltd    -7.29%
    UFS    Domtar Corporation    -7.26%
    GT    Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.    -7.22%
    CECO    Career Education Corp.    -7.16%
    JAH    Jarden Corp.    -7.03%
    CX    CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.    -6.93%
    VCI    Valassis Communications Inc.    -6.88%
    MTW    Manitowoc Co. Inc.    -6.83%
    LOGI    Logitech International SA    -6.79%
    CRR    CARBO Ceramics Inc.    -6.73%
    HSC    Harsco Corporation    -6.67%
    GGG    Graco Inc.    -6.64%
    AGCO    AGCO Corporation    -6.42%
    HLIT    Harmonic Inc.    -6.21%
    JLL    Jones Lang Lasalle Inc.    -6.15%
    ALLT    Allot Communications Ltd.    -5.88%
    SSYS    Stratasys Inc.    -5.83%
    SRCL    Stericycle, Inc.    -5.70%
    LEAP    Leap Wireless International Inc.    -5.69%
    AEM    Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.    -5.69%
    IFSIA    Interface Inc.    -5.63%
    PNM    PNM Resources, Inc.    -5.54%
    CNQR    Concur Technologies, Inc.    -5.54%
    CTCT    Constant Contact, Inc.    -5.47%
    TZOO    Travelzoo Inc.    -5.45%
    LIFE    Life Technologies Corporation    -5.33%
    DAN    Dana Holding Corporation    -5.32%
    IRM    Iron Mountain Inc.    -5.29%
    DANG    E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc.     -5.23%
    NATI    National Instruments Corporation    -5.22%
    UAL    United Continental Holdings, Inc.    -4.98%
    BRKR    Bruker Corporation    -4.98%
    TWC    Time Warner Cable Inc.    -4.76%
    FLS    Flowserve Corp.    -4.75%


    For Market TA analysis
    Stock Market  Closing Price 7/29/11
     

    At the close: Dow -0.79% to 12144. S&P -0.65% to 1292. Nasdaq -0.36% to 2756.
    Treasurys: 30-year +1.66%. 10-yr +1.04%. 5-yr +0.71%.
    Commodities: Crude -1.59% to $95.89. Gold -0.19% to $1628.10.
    Currencies: Euro +0.29% vs. dollar. Yen +1.1%. Pound +0.33%.

    SP 500
    Long term signals : Bullish
    Short term signals : Neutral

    Stop  @ 1250
    QQQ (Nasdaq 100) : Bullish, stop @ 55
    INDU: Bullish, stop @11000
    COMPQ:Bullish, stop @ 2600
    Top trend : Techs  
    Value : Financial

    Euro Dollar : Bullish
    US Dollar index : Bearish  
    Gold : Bearish, stop @ 1330
    10 Y US Yield : Bullish, above 2.8 stop
    30 Y US Bond : Short, stop @ 132

    World Market
    UK's FTSE:  Bullish, stop @ 5700
    Germany's DAX: Bullish, stop @ 6340
    France's CAC: Bullish, stop @ 3800
    Shanghai : Bullish
    Japan Nikkei : Bullish

    Support for the SPX remains at 1280 and then 1265, with resistance at 1315 and then 1340.So we should trade small lot.Take a look all 1/5/15/60m chart if we want to trade this market. 

    I also have  technical analysis different stocks-Right Here.
     
    Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
    $SPX - 60 min
    ALL QUICK LOOK INDEX DAILY CHARTS
    QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
    $USD
    $VIX
    $CPC daily
    $SPX, $USD & $VIX
    INDEX Bullish percent index (EOD)
    Simple Trading System  
    QQQQ Daily 
    COMPQ



    FOR 08/01 SPX resistance, pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1326.64, R2 1314.40, R1 1303.34
    Pivot Point 1393.10
    Support  S1 1282.04, S2 1271.80 S3 1260.74

    FOR Weekly 08/01-08/05 SPX resistance , pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1391.57, R2 1367.94, R1 1330.11
    Pivot Point 1306.48
    Support  S1 1268.65, S2 1245.02, S3 1207.19










    For the latest updates on the stock market, visit,
    http://dailymarketanalysis-blog.blogspot.com/

Post Title

Stock Market Technical Analysis for Next Week 7/31/11


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Miami Real Estate Market Heats Up: June Home Sales Are the Highest in 4 Years, for Condos 6 Years

    DQ News -- "Miami-area June home sales climbed above the year-ago level for the seventh consecutive month, suggesting this year's lower prices have helped offset the loss of the homebuyer tax credits that boosted demand in the first half of 2010. The median sale price dipped slightly month-to-month and fell 10 percent from June 2010, marking the 45th consecutive month in which the median has fallen year-over-year.

    June's total sales were the highest for that month since June 2007 (when 10,136 homes sold) but fell 20.7 percent below the average June sales tally of 12,427 since 1997.  In June, 9,857 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the Miami metro area, and rose 1.4 percent from the prior month and 6.0 percent from a year earlier (see chart above). 

    The 4,911 condos that resold last month marked a 2.2 percent decrease from May but a 12.7 percent increase from a year earlier. It was the highest number of condo resales in the month of June since 2005, when 6,070 condos resold. 

    The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Miami region in June was $135,000, down 1.5 percent from May and down 10.0 percent from a year earlier. The June median stood 53.4 percent below the peak $290,000 median in June 2007. 

    There were signs that prices in some market segments might be in the early stages of stabilizing. For example, the median price paid for resale single-family detached houses, which stood at $174,000 in June, has risen month-to-month for the past three months, though last month it remained nearly 6 percent below the year-ago level. The median price paid per square foot for resale single-family houses, which was $99 in June, has also increased for three consecutive months, though in June it was still 8.3 percent lower than a year ago.

    MP: Miami home and condo sales are now back above their pre-recession levels, largely  because median home prices are less than half of their 2007 peak level.  But it looks like Miami home prices are starting to find a bottom, and if buying activity continues to remain active, the median home prices will eventually start to increase.  At this point, it's an incredible buying opportunity, as most of Miami real estate is "on sale" at a "50% discount" from 2007 prices.  

Post Title

Miami Real Estate Market Heats Up: June Home Sales Are the Highest in 4 Years, for Condos 6 Years


Post URL

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Markets in Everything: iPhone Dermatoscope

    Intomobile.com -- "Among the ever-growing number of iPhone accessories, we’ve spotted a new one which may pave the way to revolutionize the health care as we know it. It’s called Handyscope and by sticking it on the back of the device, it effectively turns an iPhone into a digital dermatoscope allowing for mobile skin examination.

    The accessory works in conjunction with an app that enables users to take a sample of their skin, which once a photo is taken, can be beamed directly to the physician to get his or her expert opinion."

    HT: Norman Berger

Post Title

Markets in Everything: iPhone Dermatoscope


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https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/markets-in-everything-iphone.html


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World's First Flight of a Fully 3D Printed Airplane



    About three weeks ago, I featured two amazing videos of "3D Printers" on this CD post.  There's another amazing video above of the world's first flight of a fully "3D printed airplane."  Here's a report from Gizmag:

    "One of the biggest selling features for 3D printers is the fact that you can just whip up a design using CAD software on your computer, then create a physical copy of it to try out - no special factory tooling required. Well, in order to illustrate the potential of the technology for the aviation industry, engineers from the University of Southampton have just designed and flown the world's first "printed" aircraft. The entire structure of the unmanned air vehicle (UAV) was created using an EOS EOSINT P730 nylon laser sintering machine, which builds up plastic or metal parts through a successive layering technique.

    The plane is named SULSA, for Southampton University Laser Sintered Aircraft. Once printed, the various parts of its body could simply be snapped together in a matter of minutes, without the use of tools. The resulting electric aircraft has a two-meter wingspan, an autopilot, and a top speed of almost 100 mph. In cruise mode, it is said to be almost silent.

    According to the Southampton researchers, it would normally take months to go from an initial aircraft concept to a flying prototype - using the laser sintering process, it could instead just take days. Because no production tooling is required, it also costs nothing to make changes to the finished aircraft's design, or to experiment with swapping in different parts."

Post Title

World's First Flight of a Fully 3D Printed Airplane


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Markets in Everything: Used Lottery Tickets

Post Title

Markets in Everything: Used Lottery Tickets


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The World is Getting Richer: Developing Economies Fall from 58% to 39% of All Countries in 15 Years

    Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek provides a link to this July 2011 report on World Bank Income Groups, which includes the graph above (click to enlarge) based on the World Bank's annual review and re-classification of countries into four income groups—Low, Lower Middle, Upper Middle and High.  From the report:

    "More interesting is the shift over the last two decades of countries out of the bottom two groups and into the top two groups (see chart above). The number of Low-income and Lower Middle-income countries, often referred to as ‘developing economies’, is clearly diminishing."

    MP: Based on "eyeballing" the data in the chart, we can compare 1996 to 2011: 

    1996: There were about 125 countries classified in the bottom two categories: Low (income per capita of $1,005 or less) or Lower/Middle ($1,006 to $3975 per capita income), and 80 countries classified in the top two categories: Upper Middle ($3,976 to $12,275) or High ($12,276 or higher). 

    2011: The number almost exactly reversed between the two lower and two higher groups:  In 2001, there were only about 90 countries in the two low-income categories (vs. 125 in 1996) and 125 countries in the two high-income categories (vs. 80 in 1996).   

    Bottom Line: In just the 15-year period between 1996 and 2011, there were about 40 countries that moved from the two lower income groups to the two high-income categories, which is about 20% of the countries in the world that moved from "developing economy" status in 1996 to Upper Middle/High Income status by 2011.  We could say that in 1996, the World Bank classified about 58% of the world's economies as low-income or "developing," and by 2011 that percentage had fallen to only 39%.  

    Yes, the world is clearly getting richer, as Don points out. 

    Related: See this November 2009 CD post "New Study Shows Significant Drop in World Poverty."   

Post Title

The World is Getting Richer: Developing Economies Fall from 58% to 39% of All Countries in 15 Years


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3 Things You Need To Know About Trade Deficits

    1. Trade deficits are a positive consequence of cost-conscious American consumers and businesses shopping globally for the best value, quality, and price.

    2. The trade deficit as most people understand it doesn’t exist.

    3. Trade deficits are most often associated with periods of strong U.S. economic growth—not decline.

Post Title

3 Things You Need To Know About Trade Deficits


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https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/3-things-you-need-to-know-about-trade.html


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The "Homeownership Bubble" is Still Deflating

    The Census Bureau reported yesterday that the homeownership rate in the U.S. fell to 65.9% in the second quarter of 2011 (see chart).  That’s the lowest homeownership rate in slightly more than 13 years, since the 66.4% rate in QIV of 1997.  Compared to the all-time peak of 69.2% in 2004, America’s homeownership rate has now fallen by more than three percentage points.

    The chart above also displays inflation-adjusted house prices, using the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index. After several decades of relative stability in real home prices (index stable around 280) and homeownership rates (between 64-65%) between 1975 and 1995, both series rose over the next decade to unprecedented record-high levels. By 2004, the homeownership rate had risen to 69.2% from 64% in 1994, and real home prices appreciated by more than 50% between 1996 and 2006.

    That huge run-up in home prices created an unsustainable real estate bubble that started crashing in 2007, leading to a 22% drop in home prices through the first half of this year and bringing real home prices back to their 2001 levels. Likewise, the unsustainable “homeownership bubble” started crashing in 2007 and homeownership rates are now below 66% for the first time since the late 1990s.

    Read more here at The Enterprise Blog

Post Title

The "Homeownership Bubble" is Still Deflating


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One Chart To Explain the Entire Financial Crisis

    The chart above appeared on this recent CD post showing the close historical relationship between: a) the U.S. homeownership rate, and b) the share of mortgages for home purchases with a 3% down payment or less (97% loan-to-value ratio or higher), especially starting in about 1995 when they both increased sharply.

    At a recent post at the SayAnythingBlog, Donny Baseball writes that if you had to look at just one chart to understand the entire financial crisis, it would be the chart above.  Here's some additional commentary:

    "3%!  Simply amazing.  3% isn’t even close to serious.  If you are only able or willing to put down 3% you simply aren’t serious about homeownership.  It’s laughable.  3% would have gotten you laughed out of any bank in America prior to 1994.  Yet by 2007 40% of all mortgages had less than 3% downpayments.  It’s additionally frightening to wonder what that number would be for less than 4% down or 5% down, still totally laughable and un-serious levels of equity.

    I have said it for awhile – mortgage lending to creditworthy home buyers has been a stable, profitable, and boring business in the United States of America for about a hundred years; so for those who blame “Wall Street greed” for the crisis, I ask you “why now?”  Why did greed not appear, not infect the system, not attempt to seize filthy lucre for that hundred years?  Why did greed only show up at that particular moment in time?  I further ask why did greed not make its way to Canada, where they did not have a housing and/or banking crisis?  Is greed only a US and highly time specific phenomenon?

    The answer is that government embarked, at the urging of “social justice” activists, on a policy campaign to degrade the prudential standards that prevailed in the housing lending market.  The government effectively demanded and enforced irresponsible lending, and they got it.  Unfortunately the government can’t repeal the iron laws of economics, so what they got was a flimsy, risk-infected financial system that was bound to crash, which it did."

Post Title

One Chart To Explain the Entire Financial Crisis


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/one-chart-to-explain-entire-financial.html


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Estimating the Value of Public Sector Job Security

    AEI economist Andrew Biggs and Heritage Foundation Policy Analyst Jason Richwine have co-authored a series of articles on private vs. public compensation, for example see their WSJ articles "The Public Worker Gravy Train" and "The Government Pay Bonus," and a longer more technical working paper "Comparing Federal and Private Sector Compensation."   

    From the abstract of the working paper (emphasis added):

    "Public sector compensation has come under increased scrutiny from politicians and the media, but comprehensive technical comparisons of federal and private compensation have been largely absent from the discussion. Drawing from the academic literature and using the most recent government data, this report measures the generosity of federal salaries, benefits, and job security. Compared to similar private sector workers, we estimate that federal workers receive a salary premium of 14 percent, a benefits premium of 63 percent, and extra job security worth 17 percent of pay. Together, these generate an overall federal compensation premium of approximately 61 percent."

    In a post today on The Enterprise Blog, Andrew Biggs writes:

    "In our work on public sector pay, Jason Richwine and I have attempted to put a dollar value on the greater job security enjoyed by government employees, which acts as a free insurance policy against losing your job. Estimating the value of job security from the data is tough, however, for technical reasons outlined in our working paper on federal pay. Instead, we use an economic model, calibrated with a variety of data, to arrive at an estimate. Our baseline result was that job security for federal government employees was equivalent to a 1.5% to 3% increase in pay."

    Andrew then points to a recent CD post on the market for private job loss insurance, which allows him to estimate the "implicit value of public sector job security" based on differences in market-based insurance premiums by occupation:

    "I compared salaries between public and private sector workers’ net of supplemental unemployment insurance premiums sufficient to protect against all loss of income during unemployment. The difference in salaries indicates the job security premium paid in the public sector. The answer I found was around 2.4 percent, which was right in line with our baseline results. Given that total compensation for a typical federal employee is well over $100,000, even this baseline 2.4 percent job security premium is worth several thousand dollars. When you add that it protects a job paying a wage and benefits premium, the value of public sector job security is far higher."

    MP: It's interesting that the empirical evidence from market-based insurance premiums for unemployment supports the estimates from a more theoretic, economic model developed by Andrew Biggs and Jason Richwine.  

Post Title

Estimating the Value of Public Sector Job Security


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/estimating-value-of-public-sector-job.html


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Stock Market Overview for 7/28/11

    During regular trading hours, there were many stocks that continued to break up to the upside. These stocks are usually going up  with news.If you are looking to day trade today, you might want to check out the following stocks. I usually throw these on my watch list and monitor with resistance & support levels. Below are a list of stocks that I am watching for July 29,2011. Also check out my Top 2011 Stock Gainers, Stocks to Buy 2011.You can also check previous stocks to buy reports- Right Here

    Top Stocks Performance of the day:These are  stocks that continued to break up to the upside or down side. These stocks are usually going up or down with news or technical.If you are looking to day trade, you might want to check out the following stocks. 

    Top Gainers: RBY, OSBC, GST, CLUB, LABL, TSTF
    New High: EDAC, RGR, CLUB, GMCR
    Overbought: EDAC, OCNFD
    Unusual Volume: OILZ, ABVA, SFST, OSBC
    Upgrade: CCMP
    Earnings Before: ABC
    Insider Buying:  BCBP 

     
    Biggest Gainers 7/28/11 
    Composite Biggest Gainers 
    Ticker     Company     Change
    CLUB    Town Sports International Holdings Inc.    24.25%
    AXTI    AXT Inc.    20.55%
    SKX    Skechers USA Inc.    18.53%
    GMCR    Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.    16.41%
    JVA    Coffee Holding Co.Inc.    16.01%
    RGR    Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.    15.87%
    CROX    CROCS Inc.    15.55%
    LIZ    Liz Claiborne Inc.    15.20%
    MBLX    Metabolix, Inc.    14.85%
    RNOW    Rightnow Technologies Inc.    14.43%
    LSI    LSI Corporation    14.13%
    GNC    GNC Corp.    12.75%
    SINO    Sino-Global Shipping America, Ltd.    12.73%
    ARRS    Arris Group Inc.    11.28%
    BWA    BorgWarner Inc.    10.94%
    OSUR    OraSure Technologies Inc.    10.33%
    AVEO    AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc.    10.01%
    TBI    TrueBlue, Inc.    9.61%
    HPY    Heartland Payment Systems, Inc.    9.51%
    BDC    Belden, Inc.    9.50%
    CAM    Cameron International Corporation    9.24%
    EQIX    Equinix, Inc.    8.83%
    SODA    SodaStream International Ltd.    8.82%
    VSI    Vitamin Shoppe, Inc.    8.59%
    BSX    Boston Scientific Corporation    8.49%
    GNK    Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.    8.27%
    PACR    Pacer International Inc.    8.12%
    ACH    Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited    7.29%
    MDF    Metropolitan Health Networks Inc.    6.91%
    COG    Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation    6.86%
    ECYT    Endocyte, Inc.    6.69%
    MCP    Molycorp, Inc.    6.53%
    MJN    Mead Johnson Nutrition Company    6.34%
    KRO    Kronos Worldwide Inc.    6.21%
    IPXL    Impax Laboratories Inc.    6.10%
    BC    Brunswick Corporation    5.88%
    WPP    Wausau Paper Corp.    5.87%
    ELNK    EarthLink Inc.    5.84%
    SYMC    Symantec Corporation    5.81%
    NOR    Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp.    5.61%
    GMT    GATX Corp.    5.52%
    SPN    Superior Energy Services Inc.    5.26%
    ILMN    Illumina Inc.    5.09%
    CREE    Cree Inc.    4.93%
    HLS    HEALTHSOUTH Corp.    4.92%
    SREV    ServiceSource International, In    4.88%
    CRI    Carter's, Inc.    4.81%
    TAL    TAL International Group, Inc.    4.77%
    SAVE    Spirit Airlines, Inc.    4.75%
    DEPO    DepoMed Inc.    4.69%
    MSI    Motorola Solutions, Inc.    4.63%
    TRLG    True Religion Apparel Inc.    4.58%
    CCI    Crown Castle International Corp.    4.55%
    EFX    Equifax Inc.    4.52%
    TVIX    VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN    4.52%
    EQT    EQT Corporation    4.43%
    CALD    Callidus Software Inc.    4.43%
    OPTR    Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc.    4.41%
    MEDH    MedQuist Holdings Inc.    4.41%
    LOGM    LogMeIn, Inc.    4.39%
    CP    Canadian Pacific Railway Limited    4.31%
    AMP    Ameriprise Financial Inc.    4.29%
    FAF    First American Financial Corporation    4.24%
    AVT    Avnet Inc.    4.19%
    AFL    AFLAC Inc.    4.14%
    TAOM    Taomee Holdings Ltd. American D    3.99%
    SHPGY    Shire plc    3.97%
    NR    Newpark Resources Inc.    3.92%
    FR    First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.    3.91%
    UTHR    United Therapeutics Corp.    3.88%
    NBL    Noble Energy, Inc.    3.86%

    Composite Biggest Losers
    Ticker     Company     Chang
    SQNS    Sequans Communications S.A. Ame    -44.59%
    TQNT    TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc.    -26.74%
    MILL    Miller Petroleum, Inc.    -23.30%
    AKAM    Akamai Technologies Inc.    -19.13%
    HRC    Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc.    -17.39%
    IMAX    IMAX Corporation    -17.24%
    IPG    The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.    -16.28%
    STRA    Strayer Education Inc.    -14.66%
    AEA    Advance America, Cash Advance Centers Inc.    -13.54%
    OSK    Oshkosh Corporation    -13.33%
    RCL    Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.    -12.58%
    BABY    Natus Medical Inc.    -12.34%
    WIRE    Encore Wire Corp.    -10.51%
    MWW    Monster Worldwide, Inc.    -9.21%
    PSSI    PSS World Medical Inc.    -9.19%
    OI    Owens-Illinois, Inc.    -8.97%
    BMC    BMC Software Inc.    -8.75%
    WLL    Whiting Petroleum Corp.    -8.69%
    GTI    GrafTech International Ltd.    -8.49%
    ITRI    Itron, Inc.    -8.39%
    CPO    Corn Products International Inc.    -8.19%
    CBG    CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc.    -8.16%
    WM    Waste Management, Inc.    -7.97%
    GTLS    Chart Industries Inc.    -7.81%
    IVC    Invacare Corporation    -7.67%
    VAR    Varian Medical Systems Inc.    -7.63%
    HGR    Hanger Orthopedic Group Inc.    -7.43%
    COHR    Coherent Inc.    -7.39%
    HOLI    Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ltd    -7.29%
    UFS    Domtar Corporation    -7.26%
    GT    Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.    -7.22%
    CECO    Career Education Corp.    -7.16%
    JAH    Jarden Corp.    -7.03%
    CX    CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.    -6.93%
    VCI    Valassis Communications Inc.    -6.88%
    MTW    Manitowoc Co. Inc.    -6.83%
    LOGI    Logitech International SA    -6.79%
    CRR    CARBO Ceramics Inc.    -6.73%
    HSC    Harsco Corporation    -6.67%
    GGG    Graco Inc.    -6.64%
    AGCO    AGCO Corporation    -6.42%
    HLIT    Harmonic Inc.    -6.21%
    JLL    Jones Lang Lasalle Inc.    -6.15%
    ALLT    Allot Communications Ltd.    -5.88%
    SSYS    Stratasys Inc.    -5.83%
    SRCL    Stericycle, Inc.    -5.70%
    LEAP    Leap Wireless International Inc.    -5.69%
    AEM    Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.    -5.69%
    IFSIA    Interface Inc.    -5.63%
    PNM    PNM Resources, Inc.    -5.54%
    CNQR    Concur Technologies, Inc.    -5.54%
    CTCT    Constant Contact, Inc.    -5.47%
    TZOO    Travelzoo Inc.    -5.45%
    LIFE    Life Technologies Corporation    -5.33%
    DAN    Dana Holding Corporation    -5.32%
    IRM    Iron Mountain Inc.    -5.29%
    DANG    E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc.     -5.23%
    NATI    National Instruments Corporation    -5.22%
    UAL    United Continental Holdings, Inc.    -4.98%
    BRKR    Bruker Corporation    -4.98%
    TWC    Time Warner Cable Inc.    -4.76%
    FLS    Flowserve Corp.    -4.75%
    PANL    Universal Display Corp.    -4.74%
    AIXG    Aixtron SE    -4.73%
    VPHM    ViroPharma Inc.    -4.71%
    ROK    Rockwell Automation Inc.    -4.66%
    SBRA    Sabra Healthcare REIT, Inc.    -4.58%
    SCI    Service Corp. International    -4.57%
    CHTR    Charter Communications Inc.    -4.55%
    CIE    Cobalt International Energy, Inc.    -4.55%
    MUR    Murphy Oil Corporation    -4.53%
    TLM    Talisman Energy Inc.    -4.44%
    JDSU    JDS Uniphase Corporation    -4.43%
    QCOR    Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc.    -4.40%
    ASPS    Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.    -4.39%
    OHI    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.    -4.37%
     
    For Market TA analysis
    Stock Market  Closing Price 7/28/11
     

    At the close: Dow -0.5% to 12241. S&P -0.31% to 1301. Nasdaq +0.05% to 2766.
    Treasurys: 30-year +0.22%. 10-yr +0.19%. 5-yr +0.14%.
    Commodities: Crude -0.29% to $97.12. Gold +0.07% to $1617.40.
    Currencies: Euro -0.43% vs. dollar. Yen +0.37%. Pound +0.14%

    SP 500
    Long term signals : Bullish
    Short term signals : Neutral

    Stop  @ 1250
    QQQ (Nasdaq 100) : Bullish, stop @ 55
    INDU: Bullish, stop @11000
    COMPQ:Bullish, stop @ 2600
    Top trend : Techs  
    Value : Financial

    Euro Dollar : Bullish
    US Dollar index : Bearish  
    Gold : Bearish, stop @ 1330
    10 Y US Yield : Bullish, above 2.8 stop
    30 Y US Bond : Short, stop @ 132

    World Market
    UK's FTSE:  Bullish, stop @ 5700
    Germany's DAX: Bullish, stop @ 6340
    France's CAC: Bullish, stop @ 3800
    Shanghai : Bullish
    Japan Nikkei : Bullish

    Support for the SPX remains at 1290 and then 1270, with resistance at 1330 and then 1340.So we should trade small lot.Take a look all 1/5/15/60m chart if we want to trade this market. 

    I also have  technical analysis different stocks-Right Here.
     
    Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
    $SPX - 60 min
    ALL QUICK LOOK INDEX DAILY CHARTS
    QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
    $USD
    $VIX
    $CPC daily
    $SPX, $USD & $VIX
    INDEX Bullish percent index (EOD)
    Simple Trading System  
    QQQQ Daily 
    COMPQ 


    FOR 07/29 SPX resistance, pivot & support
    Resistance R3 1328.45, R2 1322.29 R1 1311.48
    Pivot Point 1305.32
    Support  S1 1294.51, S2 1288.35 S3 1277.54



    For the latest updates on the stock market, visit,
    http://dailymarketanalysis-blog.blogspot.com/

Post Title

Stock Market Overview for 7/28/11


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/stock-market-overview-for-72811.html


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Happy Early 99th Birthday Milton Friedman

Post Title

Happy Early 99th Birthday Milton Friedman


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/happy-early-99th-birthday-milton.html


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Visualizing and Understanding the National Debt

Post Title

Visualizing and Understanding the National Debt


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/visualizing-and-understanding-national.html


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State of the Union July 28, 2011

    July 28, 2011 online at www.uawlocal2250.com

    National contract negotiations between the UAW and GM officiallhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gify kicked off yesterday. Here is a joint press release from the National Parties: The UAW and General Motors opened 2011 contract talks Wednesday together on the factory floor at the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant, replacing the traditional formal handshake with a crowd of plant workers and the GM cars they build. "We want the new GM to succeed and when it does, everyone will benefit,” said Chairman and CEO Dan Akerson. “We are playing to win, and we’re counting on our work force -- hourly and salaried -- to take on the challenges together and forge new partnerships as a competitive advantage." UAW President Bob King noted the importance of focusing on products. “Our members bring a lot to any organization – a commitment to quality and producing the best product for the best price,” King said. “Our talks will center on the needs of our members and the need to continue to build great products.” A joint donation of $25,000 to the Wounded Warrior Project extended the ceremonial start of talks. UAW Vice President Joe Ashton, who directs the union's GM Department, and Cathy Clegg, GM vice president of Labor Relations, announced the contribution and recognized other charitable partnerships the UAW-GM team has with non-profit organizations across the country. GM also announced a commitment to increase the number of veterans in the work force as the company prepares for hiring new employees. Military service will be among factors considered in the screening process. On May 10, GM announced $2 billion of investment at 17 plants in eight states, creating or retaining about 4,000 jobs over the next 18 months. “Our work force is dedicated to producing great cars, trucks and crossovers every day,” Clegg said. “We’ll be working with our UAW partners to ensure our team continues to have the tools they need to build quality products and share in the success of the new GM.” Ashton commented on the energy across the UAW and GM team. “GM’s positive momentum has been outstanding,” Ashton said. “I was there when GM started trading again on the New York Stock Exchange and I have participated in many U.S manufacturing announcements. Our membership plays a critical role in the success of this company and I’m proud to represent this work force.”

    With the opening of negotiations, many news outlets are reporting on the topic. Here are some of the quotes and comments offered up:

    From the Detroit Free Press - “We certainly wish the UAW success in their (organizing) efforts,” Clegg said. “We’ve enjoyed a good partnership and a good relationship and it is going to be a key ingredient to making our company successful for the long term.” UAW Vice President Joe Ashton said the union will ask for cost-of-living increases to be reinstated. “We cannot be successful if we are not competitive,” Akerson said. “The world is quite brutal. It does not tolerate weakness.” However, Akerson said he doesn't expect health care to be a major issue in this year's contract talks. "We have the same challenges and the same opportunities as any company our size," Akerson said of health care for hourly workers. "I would say that is not a major issue in my mind."

    From Automotive News: Appearing with GM CEO Dan Akerson, King said these collaborative contract talks with the Detroit 3 will prove that management and the union can work together to improve productivity, quality and competitiveness at transplant operations. "Those managements are going to understand that when they work together with their work forces -- when they treat them with respect and give them fair contracts and a middle-class standard of living -- that's the best way to be the most competitive country in the world," King said. During the ceremony, Akerson said GM now has competitive labor costs. He said he hoped that after negotiations that still would be true.

    From Wards Auto: United Auto Workers union chief Bob King says a seat for labor on the board of directors at General Motors will be a key proposal during labor talks with the auto maker. “That is definitely one of our proposals – we think corporate governance is important. Nobody has a stronger long-term interest in the success of a company than the hourly workforce, and really the salary workforce, in the plant,” King said.

    From the Detroit News: "We have a sacred obligation, all of us, to deliver on the promise and the helping hand the American public extended to this company," said GM's CEO Dan Akerson, an auto industry newcomer, leading the company through his first round of labor talks. Union and GM officials acknowledged a complicated set of talks ahead, but say it is crucial to forge a contract that keeps them competitive with their nonunion foreign rivals in the South. "I'm sure we won't agree on everything, but I'm sure we can find common ground that will sustain this company for years to come," Akerson said. UAW President Bob King reiterated his pledge to organize the transplant factories, which generally have lower labor costs, and level the competitive playing field for Detroit's Big Three. He cautioned his members that one of the union's most important tools in this organizing effort is to show cooperation. "We're proving that labor and management and government and community can work together," he said.

    From Automotive News: Hyundai Motor Co.(which includes Kia) had a 37 percent gain in second-quarter profit as the company increased production to fill the void left by disruptions at Japanese rivals. Net income was 2.3 trillion won ($2.2 billion) in the three months ended June 30, compared with 1.68 trillion won a year earlier, the Seoul-based company said in an e-mailed statement today. Second-quarter sales volume rose 13 percent to 1.04 million units, according to the company's statement. Domestic sales gained 16 percent, and overseas sales rose 12 percent.

    From Wards Auto: Negotiations between Kia and its workers union are in limbo after union members rejected a tentative wage agreement reached last week. And bargainers are making no progress in wage talks at sister company Hyundai. Securities analysts in Korea thought the Kia deal, which included record-high bonuses, was extremely generous. But only 47% of voting union members approved it. The pact included record-high bonuses of 7 million won ($6,666) per worker and 80 shares of Kia stock, valued at close to 6.8 million won $6,000). Analysts believe unionists are hoping management will put in an additional sweetener bonus, as has happened in the past when a preliminary wage agreement is rejected. Meanwhile, negotiations between Hyundai and its union broke off in acrimony when dissatisfied union bargainers abruptly ended the session.

    From the Wall Street Journal: Volkswagen AG's net profit more than tripled in the second quarter as surging demand for its cars and trucks, particularly in emerging markets, kept the company on track for record sales in 2011. Europe's largest auto maker by sales said net profit in the second quarter rose to €4.67 billion ($6.71 billion) from €1.25 billion in the same period a year earlier, while revenue climbed to €40.3 billion from €33.2 billion. Volkswagen Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn told reporters earlier this month the company could sell eight million vehicles this year. In 2010, Volkswagen sold a record 7.14 million cars and trucks.

Post Title

State of the Union July 28, 2011


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/state-of-union-july-28-2011.html


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The Lawn Parking Hobgoblin in Indianapolis and City Government's Solution to a Non-Problem

    In the 1920s, H.L. Mencken said "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."     

    Exhibit A:

    INDIANAPOLIS -- "Drivers attending the Indiana State Fair or a major sporting event downtown may sometimes opt to grab a parking spot in someone's yard rather than pay higher prices in a parking lot, but some city officials think people who provide parking spots should get a permit first. City leaders are proposing that residents pay a $75 fee (per event) if they want to turn their yards into parking lots."

    HT: Matt Bixler

Post Title

The Lawn Parking Hobgoblin in Indianapolis and City Government's Solution to a Non-Problem


Post URL

https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/lawn-parking-hobgoblin-in-indianapolis.html


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IJ Challenges Atlanta's Street Vending Monopoly



    A new lawsuit was  filed today by The Institute for Justice (IJ) to challenge Atlanta's unconstitutional vending monopoly on behalf of two Atlanta street vendors (see video above and go here and here for full background information, excerpts appear below).

    "Should the city of Atlanta be allowed to create a single street vending monopoly that forces existing vendors to start paying up to $20,000 in rent and fees every year? That is the question to be answered by a major lawsuit filed today by the Institute for Justice - a national civil liberties law firm - and two well-known Atlanta vending entrepreneurs: Larry Miller and Stanley Hambrick.

    Practiced since ancient times, street vending is more popular than ever. The Economist magazine predicted that this year “some of the best food Americans eat may come from a food truck.” For generations, street vending has been a classic way for entrepreneurs to provide for themselves and their families while creating jobs and satisfying customer demands.

    But two years ago, Atlanta handed over all public-property vending to a single company—the first program of its kind in the country. Now that company wants to throw Larry Miller and Stanley Hambrick out of the spots they have worked for over a decade to build kiosks that rent for almost $20,000 a year. If it succeeds, Larry and Stanley’s businesses will be destroyed.

    To protect the economic liberty of all Georgians, Larry and Stanley have joined with the Institute for Justice to challenge Atlanta’s vending monopoly. This lawsuit, filed today in the Superior Court for Fulton County, Georgia, is the second case in the Institute’s National Street Vending Initiative. It argues that Atlanta lacks the power to grant an exclusive vending franchise and that its actions violate the Georgia constitution. A victory will not only free Atlanta’s vending community; it will make other cities think twice before entering into similarly anticompetitive arrangements."

Post Title

IJ Challenges Atlanta's Street Vending Monopoly


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https://manufacturing-holdings.blogspot.com/2011/07/ij-challenges-atlanta-street-vending.html


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